Health and Socioeconomic Determinants of Life Expectancy in Africa: A Panel ARDL Analysis

This research examines why life expectancy in several African countries continues to lag behind global averages despite decades of progress in healthcare and development. Focusing on Chad, the Central African Republic, Lesotho, and Nigeria, the study analyzes how key health and socioeconomic factors including immunization coverage, access to basic sanitation, infant mortality, healthcare expenditure, inflation, and unemployment influence longevity over time using a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Africa’s average life expectancy remains significantly below the global average, reflecting persistent challenges related to infectious diseases, limited healthcare infrastructure, inadequate sanitation, and constrained public health financing.

The findings reveal that investments in immunization, sanitation, and healthcare expenditure are strongly associated with improvements in life expectancy, while high infant mortality and inflation have a significant negative impact on long-term health outcomes. Among all variables studied, infant mortality emerges as the most influential determinant of reduced life expectancy. The research also highlights how sustained public health investments, rather than short-term interventions, are critical to improving population health and human development outcomes.

Drawing lessons from Rwanda’s healthcare transformation, the paper outlines practical policy recommendations for strengthening health systems across Africa through expanded immunization programs, improved sanitation infrastructure, greater healthcare financing, and community-based healthcare delivery. The study offers valuable insights for policymakers, healthcare leaders, development organizations, and researchers seeking evidence-based approaches to improving longevity and advancing sustainable development across the continent.